renaissance poisson

remember that 27% undecided covers a lot more ground here, because voters have more choices. that number includes a lot of people who'd never ever vote for the conservative party, but might vote strategically different from their usual choice if they're worried the conservatives might win a majority otherwise. they're in "wait and see" mode. i think it's pretty clear that harper is tremendously worried about that, which is why he totally downplayed the possibility.

Our first set of CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking indicates the Conservatives have entered the campaign with a five point lead over the Liberals among decided voters (CP 37%, Lib 32%, NDP 13%, BQ 9% GP 9%). Notably, the Conservatives are showing strength in central Canada where they are statistically tied with the Liberals in Ontario (Lib 41%, CP 39%) and close on the heels of the Bloc in Quebec (BQ 35%, CP 32%).

but speaking of the intelligence of canadian voters, this bit flabbergasts me somewhat:

Asked which of the five party leaders would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper enters the campaign with a solid 23 point lead over second place Jack Layton (Best PM - Harper 38%, Layton 15%, Dion 14%, May 5%, Duceppe 3%, None 8% and undecided 19%).